Melee calculator

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Adael
Posts: 682
Joined: Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:34 am

Re: Melee calculator

Post by Adael » Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:37 pm

(one of) Your post(s) has the individual chance of a _single_ player landing a hit (x).
Chance of a _single player_ not landing a hit is (1-x)
Chance of _all n players_ not landing a hit is (1-x)^n
Chance of _at least one of n players_ landing a hit is 1 - (1-x)^n

Bolded my additional percentages next to your numbers.
Reyne wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:45 pm
OK I went back and re-did my numbers (edited that post) and now I am more confused. Perhaps someone can double check me here.

Say against 2 opponents with 180 OB:

146 DB and 156 PB = 13.78% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 25.66%
132 DB and 178 PB = 13.78% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 25.66%

... well that means between those two options there is literally no difference in odds to get hit in melee.


Against 3 with 180 OB:

146 DB and 156 PB = 24.38% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 56.77%
132 DB and 178 PB = 26.33% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 60.02%



Against 2 opponents with 170 OB:

146 DB and 156 PB = 9.4% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 17.92%
132 DB and 178 PB = 9.4% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 17.92%

Against 3 with 170 OB:

146 DB and 156 PB = 18.43% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 45.73%
132 DB and 178 PB = 20.13% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 49.05%

I dunno that seems extremely negligible to me unless I screwed something up real bad entering my numbers.

Out of curiosity I did against 4 with 170 OB:

146 DB and 156 PB = 24.38% chance to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 67.30%
132 DB and 178 PB = 27.68% chance to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 72.65%

I guess you've still got some vanishingly small chance with the dodge gear to evade a hit but even against 4... where is the PB split?
You'd have to check a lot more numbers to really see how different setups are affected I reckon, but for these setups the pb kit is gonna get hit 4-5% more often than the db kit while unbashed (and I think my first post made it clear how much that skyrockets when bashed). People are min-maxing their bash chance by 1-2% ever since those mechanisms were released, so take from that what you will of how people view small percentages :P

Reyne
Posts: 1033
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:46 am

Re: Melee calculator

Post by Reyne » Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:41 pm

Oh nice, thanks for that.

Playing around with some more numbers in Excel right now;

EHP = (HP / (1-Abs%)) / (1-Evade%)

Should be HP divided by % damage taken after abs reduction (% is in decimal form) and all divided after your chance to get hit (1 - chance to evade in decimal form).

IE if you have 100 HP and 75% damage reduction, then 100hp / (1-0.75) = 400 ehp
If then you dodge/parry a fifth of all incoming damage then (100hp/(1-0.75) / (1-.2) = 500 ehp

Breaking that down for people who are confused at what I am talking about - that means although you only have 100 hp, first you evade a fifth of all damage entirely and then you negate 75% of the rest so 'effectively' you actually have 500 hp. This method lets us quantify and then compare various kits, accounting for different factors.

(I'm not a math person though, hope I did it right!)

Using Adael's odds to get hit in a given melee round above...

Against two at 180 ob:

- 280 hp, 132 db, 178 pb, 31% abs, .2566 chance that someone lands a hit: 1581.44
- 280 hp, 146 db, 156 pb, 9% abs, .2566 chance that someone lands a hit: 1199.11

Parry kit has 31.88% increase effective HP vs dodge kit

Against three at 180 ob:

- 280 hp, 132 db, 178 pb, 31% abs, .6002 chance that someone lands a hit: 676.10
- 280 hp, 146 db, 156 pb, 9% abs, .5677 chance that someone lands a hit: 542.00

Parry kit has 24.74% increase over dodge kit

Against two at 170 ob:

- 280 hp, 132 db, 178 pb, 31% abs, .1792 chance that someone lands a hit: 2264.50
- 280 hp, 146 db, 156 pb, 9% abs, .1792 chance that someone lands a hit: 1717.03

Parry kit has 31.88% increase effective HP vs dodge kit

Against three at 170 ob:

- 280 hp, 132 db, 178 pb, 31% abs, .4905 chance that someone lands a hit: 827.31
- 280 hp, 146 db, 156 pb, 9% abs, .4573 chance that someone lands a hit: 672.85

Parry kit has 22.96% over dodge

Against four at 170 ob:

280 hp, 132 db, 178 pb, 31% abs, .7265 chance that someone lands a hit: 558.56
280 hp, 146 db, 156 pb, 9% abs, .6730 chance that someone lands a hit: 457.20

Parry kit has 22.17% over dodge

So... obviously this doesn't account for sitting defense and odds to get bashed, which are important. I'll do that later; you're gonna take more damage sat in dodge than in parry though so really it is more about relative odds to get sat in the first place. Dodge will hold an advantage there for sure. Maybe dodge would be better for people who have issues managing flees and bash timers (I know I still do).

Against stabbers or channelers, the pb kit seems better. Would have to do more numbers to see if the pattern holds but it seems like as the ob ticks higher and the defense of the dodge kit is negated, the abs absorption starts to matter more. Slight increase in % advantage of parry over dodge at against 3 at 170 ob vs against 3 at 180 ob, anyway.

Just strictly in terms of damage taken it seems clear that the parry kit holds a pretty large advantage. The advantage is certainly blunted when fighting 2 versus 3, but the extra odds of getting hit due to pb split while wearing it are still more than negated by abs absorption given. Parry eq gives 1/3rd more effective hp than dodge eq does when fighting two, and 1/5th more when fighting three. We didn't run numbers for four at 180 OB, but the marginal loss of relative % difference in EHP from 3 opponents to 4 at 170 OB would probably hold. Shouldn't be face tanking 4 anyway! Strictly as far as pb split goes (since it has nothing really to do with bash % itself), I stand by my statement that it isn't as detrimental as people think. Relative to what I have been told anyway, which is that pb gear is bad in PK against more than one person.

A channeler might choose to forgo that in favor of the extra odds of not being hit at all and thus completing a weave. Anecdotally though, as I mentioned, the survivability has been more than worth it. Really one should be able to get short weaves completed in between rounds anyway, though I am not sure what standards are like outside the Tower :^}

If you're stabbing I imagine the extra % you can eke out of dodge kit is worth it also.

e: Okay I am done editing. :D

ee: I lied, ooc sorry. :D :D

Just to break down a set of the above for people's edification:

- 280 hp, 132 db, 178 pb, 31% abs, .2566 chance that someone lands a hit: 1581.44
- 280 hp, 146 db, 156 pb, 9% abs, .2566 chance that someone lands a hit: 1199.11

So say there's two beefy trollocs each doing an average of 30 damage per hit with their big clubs (rough estimate based on equipment trainer and anydice). Not about to do calc stuff so let's just say that 30 damage is fairly steady and doesn't deviate a whole lot.

1581.44 ehp / 30 damage per attack = 53 (rounding up)
1199.11 ehp / 30 damage per attack = 40 (rounding up)

That's how many attacks they'd have to complete to kill that person, accounting for all the attacks that will miss entirely and all the damage that gets absorbed... they'd need to be engaged on the parry kit an extra 13 attacks. If no zerk, between the two of them that's 6-7 rounds. Nothing to sneeze at and we haven't even accounted for HP regen over that extra time you get.

Ragyn
Posts: 289
Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2015 11:50 am

Re: Melee calculator

Post by Ragyn » Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:30 am

Don't think you can come up with anything conclusive unless you factor in bash which is probably the most important factor for a channeler. For smobbing I imagine it isn't important and parry equipment might function better.

Reyne
Posts: 1033
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2017 2:46 am

Re: Melee calculator

Post by Reyne » Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:54 am

Ragyn wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 4:30 am
Don't think you can come up with anything conclusive unless you factor in bash which is probably the most important factor for a channeler. For smobbing I imagine it isn't important and parry equipment might function better.
Yeah, definitely. I will maybe get to running the numbers on that this weekend.

Loror
Posts: 9
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: Melee calculator

Post by Loror » Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:47 am

Isn't there differences in how shields split parry? I thought that was always the key of using an etched over a dull black as there is almost no defensive differences. Last time I checked it was only like 1 or 2 db and under 5 pb. I thought etched and maybe onyx now, split pb in two. Meaning if you have say 180 ob it's only ever split twice. So if you have 3 people it's still 90 Pb vs them or something similar to that because I was never sure if it was an even split or not. You have the stats so you can tell for sure. Also as for stab. Can you check for the effect of weapon decay on landing % and damage? I swear I can tell when my dagger is about to need mending purely from how it starts to behave.

livendros
Posts: 385
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2016 11:25 am

Re: Melee calculator

Post by livendros » Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:11 pm

This is something I also remember from way back when

Treach
Posts: 218
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:23 am

Re: Melee calculator

Post by Treach » Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:58 pm

Loror wrote:
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:47 am
using an etched over a dull black as there is almost no defensive differences. Last time I checked it was only like 1 or 2 db and under 5 pb.
Isn't 2 db and 5 pb a very good reason to use etched over dull black?

Loror
Posts: 9
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: Melee calculator

Post by Loror » Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:46 am

It's a good reason for sure. The main reason though was how PB was split. IT was a dramatic difference

livendros
Posts: 385
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2016 11:25 am

Re: Melee calculator

Post by livendros » Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:17 pm

Yeah I thought it was something like certain rooms only let certain amount of people on you and certain items wielded would let the parry split differently

Draz
Posts: 275
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2017 9:14 pm

Re: Melee calculator

Post by Draz » Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:33 am

Just to be clear - how often to you encounter, in pk that 'matters' a non master bashing troll who isn't str'd up.

as soon as the solo fc looks like they're gonna eat a bash str tea's are popped - and if we drop pugglepi and bludlust out of the equation my pk sessions against DS over the last 3-4 months has over 90% involved DS masters.

As far as I'm concerned the calcs should be for a 21 str non master, or a master, as there isn't much point to considering the others.

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